Comprendre les motivations et les processus de migration internationale vers les villes ougandaises
Contenu principal de l'article
Résumé
Plusieurs facteurs et modèles de migration apparaissent sur le continent africain. Les facteurs et le comportement des migrants doivent encore être pleinement examinés lorsque les villes sont les destinations. Cet article tente de comprendre les motivations et le comportement des migrants internationaux basés dans trois villes ougandaises. En nous appuyant sur les lois de Ravenstein relatives à la migration, nous étudions comment les opportunités économiques et commerciales, associées aux conflits, influencent la migration internationale. La croissance des économies africaines et la paix relative qui règne dans les villes de destination semblent être des motivations fortes pour la migration internationale. Nous analysons les mouvements migratoires vers plusieurs destinations comme des « vagues » afin de comprendre pourquoi certaines personnes effectuent plusieurs voyages migratoires entre plusieurs villes. Nous utilisons le cadre origine-destination (OD) pour analyser spatialement les vagues migratoires. Cet article utilise une approche mixte combinant des données qualitatives, une analyse géospatiale, une analyse des réseaux sociaux et des mesures d'association pour comprendre les vagues migratoires. Les résultats montrent que plusieurs facteurs interagissent pour déclencher de multiples vagues de migration depuis différents pays africains vers les villes ougandaises. Alors que les conflits et la violence sont présentés dans diverses publications comme les principaux facteurs, cet article établit que les opportunités économiques, les retrouvailles sociales et familiales jouent un rôle de plus en plus important pour expliquer les vagues de migration.
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.displayStats.downloads##
Details de l'article
Rubrique

Ce travail est disponible sous licence Creative Commons Attribution - Partage dans les Mêmes Conditions 4.0 International.
Tous les auteurs/autrices qui soumettent leur manuscrit à l’African Cities Journal doivent accepter la licence Creative Commons CC BY-SA. En vertu de cette licence, les auteurs/autrices conservent les droits d'auteur sur leurs manuscrits tout en accordant à la revue le droit de publier et de distribuer l'œuvre selon les termes de la licence CC BY-SA. D'autres personnes, y compris les auteurs/autrices sont libres de partager le manuscrit sur leur support de choix. En cas de partage d’une version modifiée du manuscrit, il est impératif d'indiquer clairement les parties où des modifications ont été apportées.
Tout dérivé ou adaptation de l'œuvre doit être distribué selon les mêmes conditions de licence (CC BY-SA), afin de garantir que les œuvres ultérieures conservent le même niveau d'ouverture et d'accessibilité. Cela garantit que le travail reste librement accessible et conserve les mêmes conditions de licence, promouvant ainsi les principes de partage des connaissances et de collaboration au sein de la communauté scientifique tout en sauvegardant les droits et les intérêts des auteurs/autrices originaux.
Concernant la reproduction et le téléchargement de manuscrits dans des dépôts personnels ou institutionnels, les auteurs/autrices sont généralement autorisés à archiver eux-mêmes les preprints (version du manuscrit antérieure aux évaluations par les paires) ou postprints (version évaluée et acceptée pour publication) dans ces dépôts. Les auteurs/autrices ont notamment la possibilité de reproduire leur postprint dans leur thèse (comme un chapitre). Toutefois, il est essentiel de respecter les termes de la licence CC BY-SA et de citer dûment la version originale publiée dans notre revue.
Pour les manuscrits qui ont été acceptés pour évaluation par les pairs mais qui n'ont pas encore été publiés dans l'African Cities Journal au moment de la soumission de la thèse, les auteurs/autrices doivent mentionner que le chapitre est la version preprint d'un manuscrit en cours d'évaluation dans le journal. Par conséquent, les auteurs/autrices conservent les droits d'auteur sur leurs chapitres de thèse tout en accordant à la revue le droit de publier et de distribuer le travail sous la licence CC BY-SA.
Comment citer
Share
Références
ACSS. (2021). African Migration Trends to Watch in 2022. 1–3. https://africacenter.org/spotlight/african-migration-trends-to-watch-in-2022/
Ahimbisibwe, F. (2019). Uganda and the refugee problem: Challenges and opportunities. African Journal of Political Science and International Relations, 13(5), 62–72. https://doi.org/10.5897/ajpsir2018.1101
Alupo, B. A. (2025). Efforts in Mainstreaming Gender into Uganda’s Refugee Settlement Policy Approach. Jour-nal of Immigrant and Refugee Studies. https://doi.org/10.1080/15562948.2025.2510240
Armstrong, C., Poorthuis, A., Zook, M., Ruths, D., & Soehl, T. (2021). Challenges when identifying migration from geo-located Twitter data. EPJ Data Science, 10(1), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-020-00254-7
Azua, S., Adewuyi, T. O., Ojigi, L. M., & Mudiare, O. J. (2020). Exploring the Spatial Variation of the Relationship between Land Use and Water Quality in a Drainage Basin Using Geographically Weighted Regression. Ghana Journal of Geography, 12(2), 147-168. https://doi.org/10.4314/gjg.v12i2.7
Beauchemin, C., & González-Ferrer, A. (2011). Sampling international migrants with origin-based snowballing method: New evidence on biases and limitations. Demographic Research, 25(July), 103–134. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2011.25.3
Bernzen, A., Jenkins, J. C., & Braun, B. (2019). Climate change-induced migration in coastal Bangladesh? A critical assessment of migration drivers in rural households under economic and environmental stress. Geosciences (Switzerland), 9(1). https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9010051
Biehler, N., Landmesser, E., & Majewski, R. (2025). Mapping African Migration Insights from UN DESA Data on Patterns, Trends, and Misconceptions. SWP Research WP No. 03 December 2005 https://www.swp-belin.org/publications/products/comments/SWP_Working_Paper_Mapping_African_Migration_2025.pdf
Bjørkhaug, I., Tyldum, G., & Namanya, P. (2025). Tensions and coexistence: host narratives of refugee pres-ence in Nakivale, Uganda. Journal of Refugee Studies, 38(3), 541–553. https://doi.org/10.1093/jrs/feaf042Bohnet,
H. ;, & Schmitz-Pranghe, C. (2019). Uganda: a role model for refugee integration? https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-
Borjas, G. J. (1989). Economic Theory and International Migration. The International Migration Review, 23(3), 457–485. https://doi.org/10.2307/2546424
Boyandin, I., Bertini, E., & Lalanne, D. (2010, May). Using flow maps to explore migrations over time. In Geospa-tial visual analytics workshop in conjunction with the 13th AGILE international conference on geo-graphic information science (Vol. 2, No. 3)
Carling, J., & Collins, F. (2018). Aspiration, desire and drivers of migration. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Stud-ies, 44(6), 909–926. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2017.1384134
Carling, J., & Talleraas, C. (2016). Root causes and drivers of migration. In PRIO Paper.
Castelli, F. (2018). Drivers of migration: Why do people move? Journal of Travel Medicine, 25(1), 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/tay040
Clark-Kazak, C. R. (2011). Recounting migration: Political narratives of Congolese young people in Uganda. McGill-Queen’s University Press, ISBN 978-0-7735-3881-8.
Comber, A., Brunsdon, C., Charlton, M., Dong, G., Harris, R., Lu, B., Lü, Y., Murakami, D., Nakaya, T., Wang, Y., & Harris, P. (2022). A Route Map for Successful Applications of Geographically Weighted Regres-sion. Geographical Analysis, 55(1), 155–178. https://doi.org/10.1111/gean.12316
Crippa, A., d’Agostino, G., Dunne, P., & Pieroni, L. (2022). Conflict as a Cause of Migration. MPRA Paper, 112327.
de Haas, H., Czaika, M., Flahaux, M. L., Mahendra, E., Natter, K., Vezzoli, S., & Villares-Varela, M. (2019). Inter-national Migration: Trends, Determinants, and Policy Effects. Population and Development Review, 45(4), 885–922. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12291
de Haas, M., & Frankema, E. (2025). The age of intra-African migration: shifting patterns of regional mobility between two global diasporas, 1850–1960. Comparative Migration Studies, 13(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40878-025-00448-w
Dean, J., & Edge, S. (2024). Migration and wellbeing in and of place. In Wellbeing, Space and Society (Vol. 6). Elsevier B.V. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wss.2024.100199
Doomernik, J. (2017). Migrant Smuggling between Two Logics: Migration Dynamics and State Policies. Interna-tional Spectator, 48(3), 113–129. https://doi.org/10.1080/03932729.2013.815027
FAO. (2017). Evidence on internal and international migration patterns in selected African countries. Knowledge Materials, Factsheet from FAO ’s Statistics Division and Social Policies and Rural Institu-tions Division 1–12, https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/A-first-atlas-on-rural-migration-in-sub-Saharan-Africa/zh
Ferris, E. (2012, May). Internal displacement in Africa: An overview of trends and opportunities. In The Brook-ings Institution. Presented at the Ethiopian Community Development Council Annual Conference, Brookings-LSE Project on Internal Displacement Retrieved from http://www. brookings. edu/research/papers/20 (Vol. 12, No. 5).Fotheringham, A. S., Charlton, M. E., & Brunsdon, C. (1998). Geographically weighted regression: A natural evolution of the expansion method for spatial data analysis. Environment and Planning A, 30(11), 1905–1927. https://doi.org/10.1068/a301905
Fotheringham, A. S., Brunsdon, C., & Charlton, M. (2009). Geographically weighted regression. The Sage handbook of spatial analysis, 1, 243-254.
Grzeskowiak, M. (2024). When Legal Inclusion is not Enough: the “Uganda Model” of Refugee Protection on the Brink of Failure. Refugee Survey Quarterly, 43(1), 95–112. https://doi.org/10.1093/rsq/hdad022
Grigg, D. B. (1977). E. G. Ravenstein and the “laws of migration”. Journal of Historical Geography, 3(1), 41–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-7488(77)90143-8
Guo, D. (2009). Flow mapping and multivariate visualization of large spatial interaction data. IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, 15(6), 1041–1048. https://doi.org/10.1109/TVCG.2009.143
Herbert, S., & Idris, I. (2018). Refugees in Uganda:(in) stability, conflict, and resilience. Rapid Literature Review.
Lomo, Z., Naggaga, A., & Hovil, L. (2001). The phenomenon of forced migration in Uganda: An overview of policy and practice in an historical context. Refugee Law Project, Working Paper, 1
ILO. (2020). Free Movement of Persons and Transhumance in the IGAD Region: Improving Opportunities for Regular Labour Mobility. https://www.ilo.org/projects-and-partnerships/projects/free-movement-persons-and-transhumance-igad-region-improving-opportunities
IOM. (2015). Migration in Ugandaigration in Uganda A RAPID COUNTRY PROFILE 2013 International Organi-zation for Migration Plot 6A Bukoto Crescent. International Organisation for Migration. https://publications.iom.int/books/migration-uganda-rapid-country-profile-2013
Jensen, T. (2007). Spatial Modeling of the Migration of Older People with a Focus on Amenities Spatial Model-ing of the Migration of Older People with a Focus on Amenities. December 2007. https://doi.org/10.52324/001c.8299
Ji, G., Cheng, X., Kannaiah, D., & Shabbir, M. S. (2022). Does the global migration matter? The impact of top ten cities migration on native nationals income and employment levels. International Migration, 60(6), 111–128. https://doi.org/10.1111/imig.12963
Joseph Day. (2019). Updating Ravenstein and the Step-Migration Hypothesis.Jivraj, S. (2011). The effect of internal migration on the socioeconomic composition of neighbourhoods in England.
Kadigo, M. M., & Maystadt, J. F. (2023). How to cope with a refugee population? Evidence from Uganda. World Development, 169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106293
Kalyango Sebba, R., & Zanker, F. (2022). Political Stakes of Refugee Protection in Uganda.
Kindler, M. (2021). Networking in contexts: Qualitative social network analysis’ insights into migration process-es. Global Networks, 21(3), 513–528. https://doi.org/10.1111/glob.12310
Kreibaum, M. (2016). Their Suffering , Our Burden? How Congolese Refugees Affect the Ugandan Population. 78, 262–287. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.10.019
Lewandowska-Gwarda, K. (2014). Spatial Analysis Of Foreign Migration In Poland In 2012 Using Geograph-ically Weighted Regression. Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe, 17(4), 137–154. https://doi.org/10.2478/cer-2014-0037
Liďák, J. (2014). International migration, Europe and migration from Africa. Asian and African Studies, 23(2), 226-254. ISSN 1335 1257
Luca, D., Terrero-Davila, J., Stein, J., & Lee, N. (2023). Progressive cities: Urban–rural polarisation of social values and economic development around the world. Urban Studies, 60(12), 2329–2350. https://doi.org/10.1177/00420980221148388
Mahaboob, B., Venkateswarlu, B., Narayana, C., Ravi sankar, J., & Balasiddamuni, P. (2018). A Treatise on Ordinary Least Squares Estimation of Parameters of Linear Model. International Journal of Engineer-ing & Technology, 7(4.10), 518. https://doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i4.10.21216
Pavelescu, F. M. (2004). Features of the ordinary least square (OLS) method. Implications for the estimation methodology. Journal for Economic Forecasting, 1(2), 85-101. https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/v1y2004i2p85-101.html
Massey, D. S., Arango, J., Hugo, G., Kouaouci, A., Pellegrino, A., & Taylor, J. E. (1993). Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal. Population and Development Review, 19(3), 431–466. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938462
Matthews, S. A., & Yang, T. C. (2012). Mapping the results of local statistics: Using geographically weighted regression. Demographic Research, 26, 151–166. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.6
Murahashi, I. (2021). Conflict-induced migration and local development The socio-economic dynamics of a refugee-hosting area in Uganda. ASC-TUFS Working Papers, 1, 253-272. https://doi.org/10.51062/ascwp.1.0_253
Maunganidze, O. A., & Mbiyozo, A. N. (2024). Block by block Unpuzzling Africa's migration governance land-scape. ISS Africa Report, 2024(47), 1-24. https://hdl.handle.net/10520/ejc-isafrica-v2024-n47-a1
Maystadt, J. F., & Verwimp, P. (2014). Winners and losers among a refugee-hosting population. Economic De-velopment and Cultural Change, 62(4), 769–809. https://doi.org/10.1086/676458
Mirkin, B. (2001). Eleven ways to look at the chi-squared coefficient for contingency tables. American Statisti-cian, 55(2), 111–120. https://doi.org/10.1198/000313001750358428
Nabuguzi, Emmanuel (1993). Refugees and Politics in Uganda. The Institute of Development Studies and Part-ner Organisations. Online resource. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12413/5497
Nkiko, C. M., & Ahimbisibwe, F. (2025). Employment as a Strategic Pathway for Refugee and Host Youth Inte-gration in Uganda. Journal of International Migration and Integration, 26(3), 1689–1731. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12134-025-01250-4
Naudé, W. (2008). Conflict, Disasters and No Jobs: Reasons for international migration from sub-Saharan Afri-ca. United Nations University WIDER Research Paper, 85. https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/45125
O’Brien, R. M. (2007). A caution regarding rules of thumb for variance inflation factors. Quality and Quantity, 41(5), 673–690. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-006-9018-6
Olawale, F. E. (2018). The nature and impact of armed conflicts in some African states (1960-2017). Interna-tional Journal of Peace and Conflict Studies (IJPCS), 5(1), 104–114. www.academix.ng
Parker, Charlie Sam, S. (2020). SAGE Research Methods Foundations. SAGE Research Methods Foundations, 2019, 0–2. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781526421036
Paul, A. M. (2011). Stepwise international migration: A multistage migration pattern for the aspiring migrant. American Journal of Sociology, 116(6), 1842–1886. https://doi.org/10.1086/659641
Peprah, M. S., & Mensah, I. O. (2017). Performance evaluation of the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Total Least Square (TLS) in adjusting field data: An empirical study on a DGPS data. South African Journal of Geomatics, 6(1), 73. https://doi.org/10.4314/sajg.v6i1.5
Paul, O. T., Keneth, T., & Kuluthum, N. (2022). Protracted refugees: Understanding the challenges of refugees in protracted refugee situations in Uganda. Journal of African Studies and Development, 14(1), 1–11. https://doi.org/10.5897/jasd2021.0647
Qiong Hu, Yaxiong Ma, Baodong Xu, Qian Song, H. T. and W. W. (2018). Estimating Sub-Pixel Soybean Frac-tion from Geographically Weighted Regression Model. 1–21. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10040491
Riddervold, S., & Kristiansen, S. (2011). The Effects of Foreign Direct Investment on the Ugandan Economy. A Doctoral Dissertation: University of Agder. https://www.uia.no/om-uia/fakultet/handelshoyskolen/samarbeid/div/proceedings-eiba-2022.pdf
Riss, I. (2025). Patterns of Migration Waves and Streams: Immigration to Israel, 1948-2016. Athens Journal of Social Sciences, 12, 1–17. https://doi.org/10.30958/ajss.X-Y-Z
Robert, B., & Brown, E. B. (2022). A Practical Guide to Doing business in Uganda (Issue 1). https://create.daressalaam.mofa.go.ug/media/practical-guide-doing-business-uganda
Rossi, B. (2018). Migration History and Historiography. In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of African History (Issue November 2018). https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190277734.013.325
Routes, F. E. W., Safety, T. O., Afghans, F. O. R., To, T., & Country, T. (2021). LIKE AN OBSTACLE COURSE : FEW ROUTES TO SAFETY FOR AFGHANS TRYING TO FLEE. August. https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/asa11/4832/2021/en/
Ruaudel, H., & Morrison-Métois, S. (2017). Lessons from evaluations in Ethiopia and Uganda as countries of destination. www.oecd.org/dac/evaluation/evaluating-refugee-migration.htm
Rutaremwa, G. (2009). Internal and International Labor Migration in Uganda: The contribution of Remittances to household livelihoods. 1–11.
Salehyan, I., & Gleditsch, K. S. (2006). Refugees and the spread of civil war. International Organization, 60(2), 335–366. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818306060103
Schewel, K. (2020). Understanding Immobility: Moving Beyond the Mobility Bias in Migration Studies. Interna-tional Migration Review, 54(2), 328–355. https://doi.org/10.1177/0197918319831952
Sebba, R. K., & Zanker, F. (2022). Political Stakes of Refugee Protection in Uganda. August.
Serrat, O. (2017). Knowledge Solutions: Tools, Methods, and Approaches to Drive Organizational Performance. Knowledge Solutions: Tools, Methods, and Approaches to Drive Organizational Performance, 1–1140. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-0983-9
Shrestha, P. M. (2006). Comparison of Ordinary Least Square Regression, Spatial Autoregression, and Geo-graphically Weighted Regression for Modeling Forest Structural Attributes Using a Geographical In-formation System (GIS)/Remote Sensing (RS) Approach. Master Thesis, 204.
Sîrbu, A., Andrienko, G., Andrienko, N., Boldrini, C., Conti, M., Giannotti, F., Guidotti, R., Bertoli, S., Kim, J., Mun-tean, C. I., Pappalardo, L., Passarella, A., Pedreschi, D., Pollacci, L., Pratesi, F., & Sharma, R. (2021). Human migration: the big data perspective. International Journal of Data Science and Analytics, 11(4), 341–360. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41060-020-00213-5
Sjögren, A. (2015). Battles over boundaries: The politics of territory, identity and authority in three Ugandan regions. Journal of Contemporary African Studies, 33(2), 268–284.
Sorichetta, A., Bird, T. J., Ruktanonchai, N. W., Zu Erbach-Schoenberg, E., Pezzulo, C., Tejedor, N., Waldock, I. C., Sadler, J. D., Garcia, A. J., Sedda, L., & Tatem, A. J. (2016). Mapping internal connectivity through human migration in malaria endemic countries. Scientific Data, 3, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2016.66
Taylor, J. E., Arango, J., Hugo, G., Kouaouci, A., Massey, D. S., & Pellegrino, A. (1996). International Migration and Community Development. Population Index, 62(3), 397–418. https://doi.org/10.2307/3645924
Thompson, W Lavin, S. (1996). Automatic generation of animated migration maps. https://doi.org/10.3138/P4Q4-1220-3774-M43
Tuccio, M., Wahba, J., & Hamdouch, B. (2019). International migration as a driver of political and social change: Evidence from Morocco. Journal of Population Economics, 32(4), 1171–1203. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-019-00734-9
UN-Habitat. (2017). Urbanization and Structural Transformation. https://unhabitat.org/urbanization-and-structural-transformation
UNCTD. (2018). Economic Development in Africa Report 2018. https://unctad.org/publication/economic-development-africa-report-2018
UNHCR. (2016). An Assessment of Uganda ’ s Progressive Approach to Refugee Management. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/259711469593058429
van Hove, E., & Johnson, N. G. (2021). Refugee settlements in transition: Energy access and development chal-lenges in Northern Uganda. Energy Research and Social Science, 78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102103
Vemuru Varalakshmi, Yonatan Yehdego Araya, Charles Kalu Kalumiya, Faisal Buyinza, Joseph Okumu, & Karoline Hilde Klose. (2016). An assessment of Uganda’s progressive approach to refugee man-agement. https://nru.uncst.go.ug/items/ce02dc0d-7056-455c-870d-6c50283184c5
World Bank. (2021). Rural-Urban Migration in Developing Countries Lessons from the Literature. http://www.worldbank.org/prwp
World Economic Forum. (2017). Migration and Its Impact on Cities In collaboration with PwC. https://www.weforum.org/publications/migration-and-its-impact-on-cities/
Yue, Y., Sun, J., Liu, X., Ren, D., Liu, Q., Xiao, X., & Lu, L. (2018). Spatial analysis of dengue fever and explora-tion of its environmental and socio-economic risk factors using ordinary least squares: A case study in five districts of Guangzhou City, China, 2014. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 75, 39–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2018.07.023
Zhou, Y.-Y., Grossman, G., & Ge, S. (2022). Inclusive Refugee-Hosting in Uganda Improves Local Development and Prevents Public Backlash. www.pdri.upenn.edu/bio/shuning-ge/